关于2020的11条寓言
We don't have a crystal ball, but we have a pretty good nose for emerging trends (with some help from our favorite expert sources).
我们没有水晶球，但我们对新兴趋势有相当敏锐的嗅觉(在我们最喜欢的专家资源的帮助下)。
Some likely trends give cause for optimism — signs of progress in solving the world's problems. Other trends are pessimistic — threats and challenges that are expected to worsen in the year ahead.
一些可能的趋势让我们有理由感到乐观——这是解决世界问题取得进展的迹象。其它趋势是悲观的——预计未来一年威胁和挑战将进一步恶化。
Here are 11 trend lines we'll be watching in 2020. First we'll give you the bad news — then the hopeful predictions.
以下是我们将在2020年看到的11条趋势线。首先我们会告诉你坏消息，然后是充满希望的预测。
Grim trends
首先是坏消息
1.A record number of people will need humanitarian assistance
需要人道主义援助的人数将创下纪录
The United Nations is predicting that 168 million people, a record, will need humanitarian assistance in 2020 because of extreme weather, large infectious-disease outbreaks and intensifying, protracted conflicts across more than 50 countries.
联合国预测，到2020年，由于50多个国家的极端天气、大规模传染病爆发和不断加剧的长期冲突，将有创纪录的1.68亿人需要人道主义援助。
2.Second-tier diseases will go gangbusters
二线疾病将肆虐
Over the last 12 months, the world made steady progress against the big infectious killers — HIV, malaria and tuberculosis.
在过去的12个月里，全世界在对付艾滋病毒、疟疾和结核病这三大传染病杀手方面取得了稳步进展。
But other illnesses, some of them easily preventable, stole the limelight.
但是其他一些疾病，其中一些很容易预防，也开始吸引人们的注意。
Those second-tier diseases include measles and dengue, which did gangbusters in the tropics.
这些二线疾病包括麻疹和登革热，这两种疾病在热带地区肆虐。
3.Aid will become even more political
援助将变得更加政治化
"It seems we're returning to the bad old days of the Cold War when we used aid as a glorified payoff for [political] friends and allies," says Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and former U.S. foreign disaster assistance chief under the Obama administration.
全球发展中心的高级研究员、奥巴马政府的前美国对外灾难援助负责人杰瑞米·康迪克说:“我们似乎正在回到冷战时期的糟糕日子，那时我们把援助当作是对(政治)朋友和盟友的一种荣耀的回报。
4.Unrest over inequality will grow
不平等引发的动荡将会加剧
2019 was marked by angry protests over inequality around the world, and according to some experts, the demonstrations will grow more violent in 2020.
2019年，世界各地爆发了针对不平等的愤怒抗议活动。一些专家表示，到2020年，示威活动将变得更加暴力。
5.Water taps continue to run dry
水资源将继续匮乏
In June 2019, Chennai, India, reached "Day Zero" — the day on which the city's reservoirs ran almost completely out of water.
2019年6月，印度钦奈迎来了“0水日”——该市的水库几乎完全没水的那一天。
By the fall, seasonal rains had resupplied the city, at least temporarily.
到了秋天，季节性降雨至少暂时为这座城市提供了补给。
But the looming specter of water scarcity is certain to continue in cities around the world in 2020.
但是，在2020年，水资源短缺的幽灵一定会继续笼罩在世界各地的城市。
6.Gender equality is not on the horizon
性别平等仍遥遥无期
The U.N. calls gender equality a "necessary foundation" for a peaceful and prosperous world.
联合国称性别平等是世界和平与繁荣的“必要基础”。
Yet no country in the world is on track to achieve gender equality, as defined by the U.N.'s sustainable development goals, by 2030.
然而，世界上还没有一个国家正在按照联合国的定义实现2030年性别平等的可持续发展目标。
Hopeful trends
再看看好消息
7.Global health will get woke
全球健康意识增加
This year, expect more people in the global health and development community to address the injustices and inequities that can be traced to the era when Western countries colonized poor countries, stripping them of resources and autonomy.
今年预计会有更多全球卫生和发展领域的人们会处理不公平问题和这些问题可以追溯到西方国家殖民穷国的时代，剥夺了它们的资源和自主权。
People who work in the field know that much of the money, influence and decision-making about how to help low-income countries still comes from wealthy countries — with little input from the people who receive the assistance.
在这一领域工作的人知道，有关如何帮助低收入国家的大部分资金、影响力和决策仍然来自富裕国家，而接受援助的人提供的投入则很少。
8.Satellite imagery could improve global health
卫星图像可以改善全球健康
This year, expect to see more research on global health and development from a sky-high point of view.
预计今年将有更多关于全球卫生和发展的研究从一个极高的角度展开。
Imagery produced by satellites is becoming more ubiquitous and inexpensive — and an increasingly vital source of data on poverty, disease and environmental challenges.
卫星拍摄的图像正变得越来越普遍和廉价，并日益成为有关贫困、疾病和环境挑战的重要数据来源。
9.Youth activists will lead the fight for a better world
青年活动人士将领导大家为一个更美好的世界而奋斗
It's not just Greta Thunberg, the 16-year-old Swedish climate activist who seized Time's Person of the Year cover for 2019.
不仅仅是16岁的瑞典气候活动家格雷塔·腾贝格登上了《时代》杂志2019年度人物的封面。
Helena Gualinga, a teen Indigenous activist from the Ecuadorian Amazon, took world leaders to task at the COP 25 climate summit and accused oil companies of "violating our human rights."
来自厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区的土著青年活动家海伦娜·瓜玲嘎也在第25届气候峰会上指责了世界各国领导人，并指责石油公司“侵犯了我们的人权”。
10.Cash will be king (of aid)
现金为王(援助方面)
It's an idea that has been gaining popularity for more than two decades: Instead of giving poor people goods and services — say, a cow or job training — why not just give them money and let them decide how best to spend it?
这个想法已经流行了20多年了:与其给穷人提供商品和服务——比如一头牛或职业培训——为什么不直接给他们钱，让他们自己决定怎么花最好呢?
So far the evidence suggests that poor people who received this cash aid mainly used it to meet short-term needs — like giving their families enough food each day — rather than finding ways to lift themselves out of poverty in a permanent way.
到目前为止，有证据表明，接受这种现金援助的穷人主要是用它来满足短期的需要，比如每天给他们的家庭提供足够的食物，而不是想办法让自己永远摆脱贫困。
But these families were also able to give their children more schooling.
但这些家庭也能让他们的孩子接受更多的教育。
And now that the kids are aging into the workforce, it will become clear whether the extra education translates into enough additional income to vault this next generation out of poverty.
现在，孩子们正在步入职场，额外的教育能否转化为足够的额外收入，让下一代脱离贫困，这一点将变得很清楚。
If so, says Evans, "that will be an exciting thing to find."
埃文斯说，如果是这样，“那将是一个令人兴奋的发现。”
11.Access to college will boom
大学进一步扩招
More and more people are going to college.
上大学的人越来越多了。
Access to higher education has expanded rapidly across the globe over the last five years, says Michael Green, CEO of Social Progress Imperative, and he expects it to continue in 2020.
“社会进步势在必行”的首席执行官迈克尔·格林表示，在过去五年中，全球范围内接受高等教育的机会迅速增加，他预计到2020年这一趋势还将继续。
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